Black Swan Event

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The term black swan event is a metaphor that describes an event that appears extremely unlikely beforehand, comes as a surprise and has a major effect. Black swan events are statistically virtually impossible within linear systems but do occur in nonlinear systems because of their capacity to generate long-tail distributions where extremely large events are much more likely. However, these extremely large events are typically not accounted for when using linear thinking and thus come as extreme surprises.

 

2017-05-08T19:49:21+00:00